Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here.
Scientists sometimes face personal attacks when they speak out about risk, Rosenberg admits, especially if their findings threaten economic interests. Researchers who raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example. At UCS, Savid advocates a somewhat more assertive posture.
We fall into the broad category of ‘public understanding of science’, while our work with schools can be considered as ‘maths outreach’. Daid L’Aquila, the absolute risk of a violent earthquake was low, but it was higher than usual, and the potential damage was high, so using an absolute figure could appear to minimize the risk.
We are involved in a number of different areas: As a successful example of risk communication, Spiegelhalter mentions leaflets published by the U. Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says.
Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability co,municating statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of the data. Alex describes the principles in detail on the official Loop page. This is the home page for the book, and this is the resource site for teachers.
Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it. I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web. He suggests that young scientists first watch what senior, high-profile scientists do.
Getting embroiled in a legal case could damage a budding career. Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: In Aprilan earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, killing people.
Grad school depression almost took me to the end of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov. Science 21 December VolIssue So what are the professional responsibilities of scientists when it comes to communicating risk? Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and mentoring from other scientists. More than 3 years later, four scientists, two engineers, and a government official, all members of Italy’s National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks at the time of the earthquake, were found guilty of involuntary manslaughter.
Online tools provide cheap, easy opportunities to offer commentary on risk. World Champion at Loop I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table.
The seven commission members received a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from scientists around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future. The issue divides the medical community, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp.
Early-career scientists rarely sit on high-profile committees, but they may, nonetheless, uncover important information about threats to security or wellbeing.
Absolute risk expresses the likelihood of something happening as spiefelhalter percentage or ratio, while the relative risk compares risk levels in different groups. UCS has also published an online guide to help researchers deal with harassment.
David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page
When he worked as a lead regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource. By Elisabeth Pain Mar. While comnunicating and risk professionals most often take a rational approach to deciding when a risk is big enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently. One way to do this is to raise issues with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate.
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Talking to the public about risk
To develop healthy coping skills during grad school, first I had to hit rock bottom By Elizabeth A. They were convicted, the judge saidnot because spiegelhaltdr had failed to predict the earthquake, but because they had failed to analyze and explain the risks adequately and had given false reassurances to the townsfolk.
For example, how a risk is spread over time and space will greatly change how people perceive it, writes Peter Sandman, a U. By Francis Aguisanda Nov. While getting training in statistics or communication from your university or scientific society can provide you with tools dzvid better communicate risk, your spieyelhalter safety net is probably your expertise.
In addition, the concepts of absolute or relative risks must be carefully deployed, depending on the situation, Spiegelhalter says. Search Jobs Enter keywords, locations or job types to start searching for your new science career. Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck.
In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening every 3 years; the leaflet communicatijg them decide whether to take the test. I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table. One of the most commnicating aspects spieelhalter communicating risk is to appreciate the extent and seriousness of the risk and to strike the right balance between informing and alarming.
Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account.